![]() ![]() ![]() The report also notes that commentary from Mr Chalmers and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, as well as media reports, indicate that policy/spending initiatives in the 2022/23 Budget may include: In the report, Mr Halmarick writes that CBA’s forecast for nominal GDP growth in 2022/23 is approximately 7%/yr. “The government needs to keep the budget deficit relatively small for this year, next year, the year after at around 1%-1.5% of GDP, and if the economy is growing stronger, then the debt level actually comes down, which is what you want to see,” he explained to CBA Newsroom. The recent experience in the UK provides a very good example of how markets might respond if you don't do that,” Mr Halmarick added. “Both the Prime Minister and Treasurer have said that they are aware that fiscal policy has to work hand-in-hand with monetary policy to help get on top of inflation. The report goes on to note it will be important for the government to maintain budget deficits of approximately 1%-1.5% of GDP not only in 2022/23, but also over the next few years to assist the Reserve Bank of Australia in managing the economic cycle and the current surge in inflation. ![]() In his report, he explains that the improvement in the 2021/22 bottom-line of $A47.9bn came from a combination of higher tax receipts ($A14.4bn in company tax and $A6.8bn in individual tax), thanks to higher commodity prices and the strength of the labour market, and a reduction in outlays ($A20.1bn), thanks to the stronger economy, delayed spending on key infrastructure projects and a temporary reduction in payments associated with the some health and NDIS services. Companies are earning more revenue and there are more people employed, so tax receipts are higher,” Mr Halmarick told CBA Newsroom. “The budget position has improved over the past year because the economy has done better than previously expected. The report notes this would represent little change in the fiscal position from the 2021/22 deficit of 1.4% of GDP, but will be substantially lower than the 2020/21 deficit of 6.5% of GDP. In a report published on 19 October, Mr Halmarick writes that improvements to the budget bottom-line in 2021/22 and stronger-than-expected growth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) point to a 2022/23 budget deficit of approximately $A30bn-$A40bn, or 1.2%-1.5% of GDP. ![]()
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